U.S. agricultural exports are forecast to reach a record $101 billion for fiscal 2008, up $10 billion from its previous forecast in November. Exports totaled $82 billion in fiscal 2007. "Based on current market conditions, bulk grains, oilseeds and cotton exports should rise $13.2 billion and account for 70 percent of the overall increase in export value for 2008," Agriculture Secretary Ed Schafer said in announcing the forecast at the USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum on Thursday. "Higher prices account for most of this increase, but export volumes are also generally higher." Schafer said higher prices for wheat, coarse grains and soybeans account for just over half of the upward revision since November. Coarse grains are forecast to rise 10.9 million tons to 70 million tons and wheat should rise 2.3 million tons, Schafer said. U.S. farm exports this fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30, are on pace to easily eclipse fiscal 2007 sales. Since 2004, when exports sales hit $62.4 billion, U.S. farm exports have set consecutive year-to-year records.
It’s not just bulk commodities such as wheat, corn and soybeans that are selling well, Schafer said. Strong demand continues for fresh and processed fruits and vegetables, tree nuts, pork, beef, poultry meat and other products. Exports of almonds and walnuts are expected to remain strong. Year-to-date almond export volume, mostly to the European Union, is expected to set a new record. Sales of whole and processed tree nuts are projected to reach $3.3 billion, a $300 million increase from the previous forecast. The leading markets for U.S. farm goods continue to be Canada, Mexico, Japan, the EU and China. The new forecast indicates that exports to Canada and Mexico will reach new records this year, totaling a combined $30.2 billion, up $1.8 billion from the November estimate. "With U.S. agricultural imports forecast at $76.5 billion, we expect a $24.5 billion trade surplus," said Schafer, who noted that a weaker dollar has made U.S. farm products more attractive to foreign buyers.
Journal of Commerce
