Nearly two dozen trade ministers meeting on the sidelines of the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, recently said they are hoping to reach a preliminary Doha Round deal by the end of March or early April. If a ministerial meeting tentatively planned for Geneva around that time can successfully resolve outstanding issues, WTO members would be expected to spend the next eight months negotiating the details and a final agreement could be ready by the end of the year.
Despite pessimism from some observers who say similar pronouncements have been made seemingly every year since the WTO talks were launched in 2001, ministers said there are a number of factors that could aid prospects for clinching a deal this year. Alluding to the technical work that has been going on at the organization’s headquarters in recent months, WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy said “we’re much nearer to ‘nearly there’ than last year.” Revised negotiating texts on agricultural and industrial goods, which could serve as the basis of a potential compromise on these critical issues, are likely to be circulated within the next few weeks. Lamy said there is also greater political will to get a deal done on the part of the Bush administration, which will leave office next January.
But the primary motivation for renewed efforts this year appears to be the consequences of failure. The global economy is already beginning to feel the effects of the slowdown in the U.S., and “trade ministers are aware of the fresh blow to confidence -- and growth -- that failure to deliver a Doha deal could entail,” a Reuters article notes. A Doha Round collapse could further strengthen the calls for protectionism that are already growing amid rising public skepticism about the benefits of free trade. U.S. Trade Representative Susan Schwab said it would be “hard to resurrect” the talks if no agreement is reached this year and that they would probably “just drift away,” to be replaced, European Union Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson said, with a proliferation of bilateral and regional trade deals that won’t offer many of the benefits already on the table at the WTO. In addition, the outcome of the U.S. presidential and congressional elections this fall could dim the outlook for getting a Doha Round deal approved by lawmakers. “Clearly there’s a sense of momentum” toward bringing the talks to a successful conclusion to avoid these outcomes, Schwab said.
World Trade/Interactive
