According to press reports, the Bush administration will mount a “relentless” campaign over the next two months in an effort to secure congressional approval of the U.S.-Colombia free trade agreement. While administration officials continue to say they want to work with Democratic leaders to push through legislation implementing this FTA, some observers say that if that strategy does not work the White House could try to force a vote.
Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez said last week that the administration will make a “full court press” in an effort to reach an agreement with Democratic leaders that will allow the Colombia FTA to move forward. Under this initiative, senior officials such as Gutierrez, U.S. Trade Representative Susan Schwab, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will lead at least a half-dozen congressional delegations to Colombia over the next two months in an effort to demonstrate the progress the country has made on issues of concern. These types of trips were the centerpiece of the administration’s lobbying blitz last fall, and Gutierrez said they have succeeded in showing lawmakers “what’s at stake” and giving them a “totally new impression” of Colombia. He indicated that invitations to visit Colombia have been extended to Democratic leaders such as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel but did not speculate on whether they are likely to accept.
Officials also indicated that the White House and the Colombian government are willing to consider additional concessions to gain congressional support for the FTA. According to a Reuters article, Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade Christopher Padilla said the administration will urge Democratic leaders to specify “exactly what else Colombia needs to do to win their approval.” Padilla added that the administration would be amenable to an expansion of the Trade Adjustment Assistance program, the article said, but “will fight any attempt to tie legislation aimed at addressing concerns about trade with China to approval of the pending trade pacts.”
If these and other efforts to find a compromise are unsuccessful, however, the administration may be willing to force the issue. While this is “clearly not the preferred option,” Schwab said recently, it is nevertheless “always an option.” Administration officials have repeatedly emphasized the importance of the Colombia FTA, as much for its geopolitical ramifications as its economic benefits. As further evidence of how big a priority this agreement is, the White House itself has taken the lead in coordinating the lobbying campaign, and it is enlisting the help of agencies such as the Office of National Drug Control Policy that are typically not involved in trade initiatives. If Democratic leaders continue to oppose the FTA, it is therefore possible that the administration could submit implementing legislation in an effort to force a vote.
Observers say this strategy is risky for both sides. Strong-arm tactics could galvanize Democratic opposition to the agreement and virtually ensure that it does not pass. And while many Democrats, including most presidential candidates, would favor an opportunity to hand the Bush administration a defeat on one of its main priorities, they are also wary of being seen as opposing a deal that benefits a key U.S. ally in Latin America and could further boost the exports that are helping the U.S. economy fight off the effects of the housing market downturn. A confrontational approach could also drive a deeper wedge between the two parties on trade issues, threatening longer-term consequences such as making it more difficult for the U.S. to negotiate and approve future trade liberalization initiatives.
Either way, the Bush administration seems intent on making sure that trade policy does not fall through the cracks amid this year’s presidential and congressional campaigns. While conventional wisdom holds that trade votes are hard to come by in an election year, particularly the last year of a presidential administration, one official said that is not in fact the case. According to an Associated Press article, Under Secretary Padilla pointed out that NAFTA was signed in 1992 under President George H.W. Bush and that Congress approved normalized trade relations with China in 2000 under President Bill Clinton. “There is a lot of precedent for getting things done in the last year of an administration,” he said. “We certainly hope to repeat that.”
World Trade/Interactive
