TradeView - A Kentucky World Trade Center Publication
Volume 17 Number 4
Summer 2006
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International Trade News

Vietnam on Track to Join WTO Before End of 2006
Fed Official says Poole says China's Growth is Good for U.S.
China Looks at Possible New Steps to Cool Off Economy


Vietnam on Track to Join WTO Before End of 2006
A WTO official said last week that Vietnam looks to be on track to meet its goal of joining the WTO before the end of this year. Eirik Glenne of Norway, who chairs both the working party on Vietnam's accession and the WTO General Council, said that with Vietnam's market access negotiations with the U.S. completed in May, work in Geneva is now focusing on translating the various bilateral deals Vietnam negotiated into the lengthy detailed commitments it will apply to trade with the entire WTO membership.

"My target remains to try to conclude the mandate of this working party in time for the General Council to consider Vietnam's accession when it meets in October," Glenne said. Delegations in the working party of over 40 WTO members said they support Vietnam's aspiration to join the WTO by the time Hanoi hosts the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum summit in November, and they applauded the effort Vietnam has put into passing laws, issuing rules and regulations, and conceding to many of their demands.

Glenne has asked members to discuss revisions to the draft texts with Vietnam and to supply these in writing to the WTO Secretariat within the next few weeks. He aims to circulate the entire draft accession package as early as possible in September. This would include both the schedules of commitments on tariffs, tariff quotas, agricultural subsidies and services market opening as well as the working party report describing actions Vietnam has taken or will take.

By mid-September, Glenne plans to start informal consultations to fine tune the drafts. "As soon as I am satisfied with this phase of our work, we can go into a final meeting of the working party to conclude our mandate," he said. The package would then go to the General Council for a decision. Once its membership has been approved Vietnam has to ratify the deal, with another 30 days after ratification before it becomes a full member.

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Fed official says Poole says China's growth is good for U.S.

A rising China will lift economic boats in the United States -- especially when Beijing can be persuaded to stop manipulating its currency and counterfeiting American products, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis told a legislative group meeting in Louisville yesterday. William Poole said there will be short-term challenges, however, as a glut of cheap labor from China, India and other emerging nations depresses the wages of low-skilled U.S. workers.

Poole addressed the Southern Legislative Conference at the Marriott Louisville Downtown. The event attracted lawmakers and staffs from 16 states. Poole said many states, especially in the South, have seen dramatic gains in exports to China, helping to create jobs. Kentucky's exports to China have soared from $64 million in 2000 to $400 million in 2005, with chemicals, metals and machinery leading the way.
"Put simply, a wealthier China is a better market for U.S. goods and services," Poole said. "Especially for the high-tech and agricultural goods which the United States produces in abundance." Poole said protectionist policies to defend U.S. wages would not create jobs and would deprive consumers of inexpensive Chinese products.
A wealthier China will bolster U.S. exports, he said, and low-skilled American workers should be retrained to take advantage of that demand. "They can increase their compensation and employment prospects, which will allow them to adjust to the evolving economic environment," Poole said.

For the U.S.-China relationship to mature, Poole said, the two sides must continue to negotiate away hindrances to the sale of goods to China, such as theft of intellectual property, restrictions to the distribution of foreign products and the lack of transparent regulations. China has pegged its currency, the yuan, to the U.S. dollar and, beginning last year, to a basket of currencies in which the yuan is allowed to narrowly fluctuate. China's policies have been criticized as undervaluing the yuan at the dollar's expense, contributing among other things to an erosion of U.S. manufacturing jobs and a mounting trade deficit. But Poole said he believed "in due time, it will be in the interest of China to relax that peg, or to move toward a more market-determined rate" for the yuan. He said China has pursued its policy to promote monetary stability. "China has a banking system that is deeply underwater with a lot of loans to state enterprises. China has some issues internally that make this policy desirable."

He sees the policy changing, Poole said, but "when it will change, I have no idea."
Poole, who isn't a voter on the Federal Open Market Committee, told reporters after the speech that he is "still very much in the 50-50 camp" on whether the panel will continue raising interest rates at its meeting next Tuesday. Market expectations for a rate hike have been ratcheted downwards, particularly in the wake of last week's weaker-than-expected economic growth data for the second quarter and the Fed's own regional Beige Book survey. Still, inflationary pressures remain, Poole said.
"Data that have come in relevant to assessing inflation pressures have tended to tilt in the direction of greater pressures than we had previously thought," he told reporters.

The Courier-Journal

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China Looks at Possible New Steps to Cool Off Economy

Officials are examining new steps to cool off China's sizzling economy as its top planning agency called for tighter bank credit and curbs on construction, state media reported. The reports today suggested Beijing believes earlier measures, including an interest rate rise in April, are failing to contain runaway growth in spending on factories and other assets that Chinese leaders worry could ignite a financial crisis. More than 100 economic officials were at the five-day meeting that began Tuesday in the seaside resort of Beidaihe, the Xinhua News Agency and newspapers reported.

The officials were looking at "how to slow down economic growth when some economists say it is already overheating," improve energy efficiency and narrow a growing gap between rich and poor, the reports said. They didn't identify any of the participants or say what possible measures they were considering. A report by the Cabinet's National Development and Reform Commission called for "stricter controls on the number of new projects, more stringent land management (and) tighter bank lending," according to Xinhua. China's economic growth surged to 11.3 percent in the second quarter, driven by fixed-asset investment that rose by 29.8 percent during the first six months, according to the government.

Investment in some industries grew even faster, reaching 44.5 percent in auto manufacturing and 40.6 percent in textiles, according to the NDRC report issued Tuesday. It blamed "local governments' blind pursuit of rapid economic development, excessively driven by growth in fixed assets investment," the China Daily newspaper said. "Rampant illegal land use exacerbated the problem."
President Hu Jintao's government wants rapid growth to spread prosperity to the hundreds of millions of people who have been left behind by China's economic boom. But Chinese leaders worry that runaway spending on factories, luxury apartments and other unneeded new assets could ignite inflation or leave companies and banks with dangerously high debt
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The Herald-Leader

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